Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker’s betting line

Kai Song, Yiran Gao and Jian Shi

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2020, vol. 547, issue C

Abstract: The paper presents a gamma process based model for the total points processes of NBA basketball matches. This model obtains a useful formula for the in-play prediction. What is more, we employ the bookmaker’s betting line to adjust the original gamma process model. The out-of-sample forecasting performances are evaluated, and more profoundly, this model can produce a positive return on the over–under betting market. Besides, our model has an application in monitoring the betting market, which may be useful to bettors.

Keywords: Sports science; NBA; In-play predictions; Gamma process; The total points process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:547:y:2020:i:c:s0378437120301618

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.124411

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