Feedback analysis of population, economy and pension: Moderate scale of China’s pension strategic reserve

Yunshu Tang, Yaoyun Ruan, Yongqing Xu and Yaokuang Li

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2020, vol. 551, issue C

Abstract: This paper puts the population, economy and pension into a unified framework, analyzes the interactive feedback mechanism between them, and builds a system dynamics model to explore the moderate scale of China’s pension strategic reserve from the following three perspectives: whether it can resist the pension payment crisis in future according to the current growth rate; if the pension gap is completely filled by the reserve, what size of the reserve needs to reach; a moderate range of the reserve when local governments are jointly responsible for filling the gap. The empirical research shows: the reserve cannot resist the pension payment crisis; the reserve needs to reach 54.21 trillion RMB before the gap appears, under the condition of fully filling the gap; the reserve needs to reach the range of 19.96 trillion to 39.51 trillion RMB before the gap appears with the participation of local governments.

Keywords: Pension strategic reserve; System dynamics; Pension gap; Moderate scale; Financial burden (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:551:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119322368

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.124043

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