Modeling social distancing and “spontaneous” infection in an epidemic outbreak phase—Application to the 2020 pandemic

Gad Frenkel and Moshe Schwartz

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2021, vol. 567, issue C

Abstract: We generalize the SIR equations for epidemic evolution to include the effect of social distancing and “spontaneous” infection. We show that the model, describes well the evolution of the corona 2020 epidemic in a number of countries, in the outbreak phase, defined as the period terminating with the first maximum in the infected fraction of the population.

Keywords: SIR Model; Covid19; Statistical physics; Differential equations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:567:y:2021:i:c:s0378437120310256

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125727

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