Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

I.F.F. dos Santos, G.M.A. Almeida and F.A.B.F. de Moura

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2021, vol. 569, issue C

Abstract: We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than 5% error and also provide with short- and long-term predictions. The model can also be used to account for the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great accuracy.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; SIR; Epidemic dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:569:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121000455

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773

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