 Self-organization of oscillation in an epidemic model for COVID-19Takashi Odagaki Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2021, vol. 573, issue C Abstract: On the basis of a compartment model, the epidemic curve is investigated when the net rate λ of change of the number of infected individuals I is given by an ellipse in the λ-I plane which is supported in [Iℓ,Ih]. With a≡(Ih−Iℓ)∕(Ih+Iℓ), it is shown that (1) when a<1, oscillation of the infection curve is self-organized and the period of the oscillation is in proportion to the ratio of the difference (Ih−Iℓ) and the geometric mean IhIℓ of Ih and Iℓ, (2) when a=1, the infection curve shows a critical behavior where it decays obeying a power law function with exponent −2 in the long time limit after a peak, and (3) when a>1, the infection curve decays exponentially in the long time limit after a peak. The present result indicates that the pandemic can be controlled by a measure which makes Iℓ<0. Keywords: COVID-19; Infection curve; Oscillation; Self-organization; SIQR model; Control of the epidemic (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:573:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121001977 DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125925 Access Statistics for this article Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier |
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