Epidemics, the Ising-model and percolation theory: A comprehensive review focused on Covid-19

Isys F. Mello, Lucas Squillante, Gabriel O. Gomes, Antonio C. Seridonio and Mariano de Souza

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2021, vol. 573, issue C

Abstract: We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin S = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi–Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis show that: (i) in many cases the epidemic curve can be described by a Gaussian-type function; (ii) the temporal evolution of the accumulative number of infections and fatalities follow a logistic function; (iii) the key role played by the quarantine to block the spread of Covid-19 in terms of an interacting parameter between people. In the frame of elementary percolation theory, we show that: (i) the percolation probability can be associated with the probability of a person being infected with Covid-19; (ii) the concepts of blocked and non-blocked connections can be associated, respectively, with a person respecting or not the social distancing. Yet, we make a connection between epidemiological concepts and well-established concepts in condensed matter Physics.

Keywords: Covid-19; Percolation theory; Ising-model; Logistic function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:573:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121002351

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125963

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