Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market
Asim K. Dey,
G.M. Toufiqul Hoque,
Kumer P. Das and
Irina Panovska
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2022, vol. 589, issue C
Abstract:
We develop a novel temporal complex network approach to quantify the US county level spread dynamics of COVID-19. We use both conventional econometric and Machine Learning (ML) models that incorporate the local spread dynamics, COVID-19 cases and death, and Google search activities to assess if incorporating information about local spreads improves the predictive accuracy of models for the US stock market. The results suggest that COVID-19 cases and deaths, its local spread, and Google searches have impacts on abnormal stock prices between January 2020 to May 2020. Furthermore, incorporating information about local spread significantly improves the performance of forecasting models of the abnormal stock prices at longer forecasting horizons.
Keywords: Covid-19; Stock market; Temporal network; Abnormal price; Volatility; Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437121006968
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:589:y:2022:i:c:s0378437121006968
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126423
Access Statistics for this article
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis
More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().