Evaluating the criticality of the product development project portfolio network from the perspective of risk propagation

Qing Yang, Xingqi Zou, Yunting Ye and Tao Yao

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2022, vol. 593, issue C

Abstract: There are numerous projects with many interdependencies in the new product development (PD) portfolio, which can be viewed as a complex network. Due to the dependency among projects, the risks in one project may transmit to others, which will ultimately affect the success of the entire project portfolio. Thus, evaluating the priority and criticality of projects under the influence of risk propagation is a fundamental challenge for the PD project portfolio. This paper presents a risk propagation model using the Bayesian network and brittle risks. The criticality analysis presented is based on both the local and the global effects of risk in the portfolio. Firstly, we build a Bayesian network model of the portfolio based on the analysis of relationships between projects. Further, we measure the criticality of the project based on the local impact of risk propagation using Bayesian and complex networks. Then, we measure the criticality of the project based on the global impact of risk propagation using brittleness. Finally, we synthesize the calculation results of criticality to measure the integrated criticality of the portfolio, and examine an exemplar industrial portfolio to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and method.

Keywords: Risk propagation; Criticality analysis; Product development project portfolio; Bayesian network; Brittle risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:593:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122000309

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.126901

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