Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

Enrique C. Gabrick, Paulo R. Protachevicz, Antonio M. Batista, Kelly C. Iarosz, Silvio L.T. de Souza, Alexandre C.L. Almeida, José D. Szezech, Michele Mugnaine and Iberê L. Caldas

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2022, vol. 597, issue C

Abstract: In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: (i) unlimited doses, (ii) limited doses into susceptible individuals, and (iii) limited doses randomly distributed overall individuals. Our results suggest that the number of vaccinations and time to start the vaccination is more relevant than the vaccine efficacy, delay between the first and second doses, and delay between vaccinated groups. The scenario (i) shows that the solution can converge early to a disease-free equilibrium for a fraction of individuals vaccinated with the first dose. In the scenario (ii), few two vaccination doses divided into a small number of applications reduce the number of infected people more than into many applications. In addition, there is a low waste of doses for the first application and an increase of the waste in the second dose. The scenario (iii) presents an increase in the waste of doses from the first to second applications more than the scenario (ii). In the scenario (iii), the total of wasted doses increases linearly with the number of applications. Furthermore, the number of effective doses in the application of consecutive groups decays exponentially overtime.

Keywords: SEIR; COVID-2019; Vaccine; Cellular automata; Stochastic model; Spread disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437122002278
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:597:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122002278

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127258

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().