Ripple effect in China–Europe Railway transport network: Ripple failure risk propagation and influence

Min Lyu, Bin Shuai, Qinyu Zhang and Linqing Li

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2023, vol. 620, issue C

Abstract: This study introduces and explores the concept of “ripple failure” in the China-Europe Railway transport network (CRN) by analyzing the interplay between flow, risk, and ripple failure in the dyadic supply–demand relationship of transport stations. A layered risk-flow network is constructed, and a multi-group SIR-like model is proposed to delineate the risk propagation dynamics. Scenario-based simulations and regression analyses are conducted to examine the effects of ripple risk propagation on the performance of the westbound CRN. The results indicate that the ripple risk propagation of CRN depends on the operational modes of stations, topological and geographic location, and neighboring stations. Innovative station transportation organizations can effectively enhance the CRN’s anti-vulnerability, particularly for the European segments and wide-gauge segments. At the node level, Forward risk is more influential on upstream stations, while the backward risk is more influential on downstream stations. At the network level, both forward and backward risks have similar negative impacts on the network performance.

Keywords: China–Europe Railway transport network; Ripple failure; Forward and backward risk propagation; Network performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:620:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123002947

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128739

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