A permutation entropy analysis of Bitcoin volatility

Praise Otito Obanya, Modisane Seitshiro, Carel Petrus Olivier and Tanja Verster

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2024, vol. 638, issue C

Abstract: Cryptocurrencies are widely regarded as volatile and less predictable assets by financial participants. The behaviour and dynamics of Bitcoin’s daily volatility, obtained by fitting GARCH models, are investigated for a period of 8 years using permutation entropy which is represented by the variable H for calculations. The best fitting GARCH models selected are the FIGARCH(1,0.7,1) and SGARCH(1,1) models based on maximum likelihood estimation, Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion. Simulated volatilities are also obtained from the best fitting GARCH models using their respective parameters, to confirm how well the models fit. The results obtained show that the H values of Bitcoin are generally low and that the dynamics of Bitcoin’s volatility is quite predictable, as Bitcoin’s volatility is most likely to decline over time than increase or have an alternating movement. Also, the simulated volatilities show good agreement with the real-world volatility, confirming the models as good fits.

Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; Dynamics; Forbidden patterns; GARCH models; Permutation entropy; Probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437124001171
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:638:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124001171

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.129609

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().