Urban rail transit passenger flow prediction with ResCNN-GRU based on self-attention mechanism

Changxi Ma, Bowen Zhang, Shukai Li and Youpeng Lu

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2024, vol. 638, issue C

Abstract: With the development of modern cities, urban rail transit has become an indispensable part of residents' travelling mode, and accurate prediction of urban rail transit passenger flow is particularly important. However, due to the non-linearity and non-stability of passenger flow, the low quality of big data and the lack of data make it more and more difficult to predict the passenger flow of urban rail transit. In this paper, we propose a unique model structure that ingeniously integrates Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with fused residual network connections, and a self-attention mechanism. The design of this model is primarily to effectively handle complex and low-quality data, which is often prevalent in passenger flow prediction scenarios. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we used data from the Beijing urban rail transit in 2016 for prediction. In the experiments, we performed comparison study and ablation study. The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper has significantly improved prediction accuracy in both horizontal and vertical comparisons. This outcome substantiates that the proposed model can not only effectively handle complex and low-quality data but also extract short-term features and long-term dependency features of passenger flow well, thereby achieving more accurate predictions.

Keywords: Urban rail transit; Passenger flow prediction; Self-attention mechanism; CNN; GRU; Residual network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:638:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124001274

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.129619

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