The importance of the incubation time distribution in compartmental epidemiological models

E.A. Rozan, M.N. Kuperman and S. Bouzat

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2024, vol. 650, issue C

Abstract: This study investigates the utilization of various mathematical models for comprehending and managing outbreaks of infectious diseases, with a specific focus on how different distributions of incubation times influence predictions regarding epidemics. Two methodologies are examined: a compartmental SEnIR ODE model, which represents an enhanced version of the mean-field SEIR model, and a stochastic agent-based complex network model. Our findings demonstrate that the selection of diverse incubation time distributions can result in noteworthy discrepancies in critical epidemic forecasts, highlighting the crucial role of precise modeling in shaping effective public health interventions. The research underscores the necessity of integrating authentic distribution patterns into epidemic modeling to increase its reliability and applicability.

Keywords: Mathematical epidemiology; Epidemic modeling; Incubation periods; Patterns in complex systems; Compartmental models; Complex networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:650:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124005077

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.129998

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