Extended Bass model on the power-law epidemics growth and its implications on spatially heterogeneous systems

D.G. Xenikos and V. Constantoudis

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2024, vol. 656, issue C

Abstract: This work explores the sub-exponential power-law growth that is observed in human and animal epidemics, using percolation analysis. Through numerical simulations, it identifies a large class of diffusion cases on networks that can be classified under an extended version of the discrete Bass model, with solutions that i) follow the Weibull probability distribution, ii) are consistent with the large power-law growth exponents β>2 reported for epidemics such as covid-19, and iii) have a clear physical meaning in agent-based models with specific behavioral dynamics. In particular, the Weibull power exponent is related to the restricted mobility of agents regarding social confinement. The mathematical formalism then depicts the time dependent diffusion in human (covid-19) and animal (foot-and-mouth) epidemics. In addition, it is used to describe the spatiotemporal heterogeneous diffusion over modular networks that model interconnected geographical regions and is applied in the case of covid-19 diffusion across USA Counties.

Keywords: Complex networks; Epidemics diffusion; Bass model; Foot-and-Mouth disease; COVID-19; Percolation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437124007337
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:656:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124007337

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.130224

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().