A method for estimating vehicle delays at parking lot exits in urban networks

Sheng Dong, Xiaonan Li, Wenlong Ding, Feng Chen and Ning Zhang

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2024, vol. 656, issue C

Abstract: Parking lot entrances and exits are places where traffic conflicts are serious and traffic delays often occur. The accurate calculation of vehicle delays is crucial for parking lot entrance and exit management and is beneficial for reducing the interaction between static and dynamic traffic. Field data can be used to determine the vehicle delay, but the process of collecting field data is costly and time-consuming. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the vehicle delay for vehicles at the entrance and exit of the parking lot through mathematical models, as this method is efficient and cost-saving. This paper provides an estimation model based on renewal theory, the Poisson distribution, and the negative exponential distribution to study the delay time of a vehicle preparing to make a right turn at the curb of a parking lot exit (VCPLE). The study focuses on the yielding behaviors of the closest approaching vehicle (CAV) that is travelling in the lane into which the VCPLE is about to merge, and that will be positioned immediately behind the VCPLE once the merge is completed. Furthermore, the headway distance between the VCPLE and the CAV is also considered in addressing the problem. Additionally, a comparative analysis of vehicle delays was conducted via field data alongside predictions from the proposed model and the Cowan M3 model. The results demonstrate the success of the model developed in this study in estimating vehicle delays for the VCPLE. Furthermore, upon comparing the calculation results with those of the M3 model, it becomes evident that the model constructed in this study offers a more precise estimation of vehicle delays at parking lot exits. By calculating the delays experienced by vehicles within the parking lot entrance and exit zones, a comprehensive understanding of the traffic operational status in these areas can be obtained. This, in turn, aids in assessing the efficiency of the transportation system. This analysis enables traffic management authorities to promptly identify and address traffic bottlenecks, ultimately contributing to an improvement in road capacity.

Keywords: Vehicle delay; Renewal theory; Poisson distribution; Negative exponential distribution; Parking lot exit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:656:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124007404

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.130231

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