Statistical models for earthquakes: A Bayesian analysis

M.O. Costa, S.L.E.F. da Silva, R. Silva, G.S. França, C.S. Vilar and J.S. Alcaniz

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2025, vol. 674, issue C

Abstract: The Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation is an exponential law widely used for describing earthquakes’ statistical magnitude distributions. Using statistical physics approaches, we present robust models based on the Tsallis q- and Kaniadakis κ-entropies, aiming to capture the influence of irregular fragments occupying space between two tectonic plates with irregular surfaces. The proposed models are called q-GR and κ-GR laws, respectively. Using Bayesian statistical analysis, we examined a large dataset of over 450,000 seismic events recorded along the San Andreas Fault between 2000 and 2023. Our findings reveal that the q-GR and κ-GR models outperform the classical GR law. The results show the κ-GR model exhibits particularly strong empirical support, with optimal performance occurring when κ≈1.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125003309
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:674:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125003309

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130678

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().