ODEN: The opinion dynamics of events and norms model on social media platforms

Hui Lin, Wenying Gong, Qi Nie, Lihua Wu, Liu Yuan, Wen Du and Hao Jiang

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2025, vol. 674, issue C

Abstract: Opinion dynamics are crucial in studying opinion evolution on social media platforms. Real-world events can spark discussions on social media, and the platform characteristics can shape these conversations. However, existing research often neglects these factors. This paper proposes the Opinion Dynamics of Events and Norms (ODEN) model. ODEN incorporates the Hawkes process to quantify the impact of real-world events and a hyperbolic tangent function to represent the social norms on social media platforms. The model accurately captures opinion evolution influenced by the real world, validated by prediction experiments on real datasets. Additionally, we conduct simulation experiments to provide references for intervening in opinion polarization. The research highlights the importance of considering real-world events and social norms in understanding opinion dynamics on social media.

Keywords: Opinion dynamics; Social networks; Social media; The Hawkes process; Extreme opinions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:674:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125004261

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130774

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