How random are team sports leagues?

Maciej Pawlik, Robert Paluch, Michał Boruta and Janusz A. Hołyst

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2025, vol. 675, issue C

Abstract: Competitive sports success is often attributed to a blend of luck and skill, with ongoing debates about the precise balance. This study analyzed historical rankings of major team sports leagues (three football, two basketball, and one ice hockey) to assess the extent to which competition outcomes are influenced by randomness. We created an agent-based model for sports teams, where team strength derives from the cumulative strengths of players. Disparities in team strengths influence game outcomes in the numerical simulations, mirroring Bonabeau’s concept of self-organized hierarchies in combat among animals. Like the archetype, our model exhibits a phase transition between deterministic and random phases. We calibrated the model using collected comprehensive sports data and discovered that real leagues operate near the boundary between the phases, suggesting a balanced impact of random factors and players’ abilities, with a slight advantage for the latter.

Keywords: Agent-based modeling; Competitive balance; Hierarchical systems; Self-organization; Sports analytics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:675:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125004662

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130814

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