Accurate, Secure and Explainable bitcoin forecasting

Maryamsadat Bagheri and Paolo Giudici

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2025, vol. 678, issue C

Abstract: Forecasting the price of bitcoin assets is a difficult task, especially as bitcoins are highly volatile and speculative. In this paper we leverage the non linear capability of deep and machine learning models to enhance bitcoin forecasts. We propose a systematic comparison of different deep learning and machine learning models, based on their Accuracy, Security and Explainability characteristics. The empirical findings reveal that, while CNN–GRU, GRU and LSTM are the most accurate models, for maximum cumulative return and risk adjusted performance GRU and CNN are preferred. Whereas, for transparent and stable decision-making, Random Forest and XGboost are a good choice and, for robustness, CNN and LSTM are the best choice. Ultimately, the choice of a model depends on the objectives of the analysis.

Keywords: Crypto assets; Security, Accuracy, Explainability; Machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:678:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125006260

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130974

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