Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?

Michael Ellis () and Dandan Liu

European Journal of Political Economy, 2013, vol. 32, issue C, 332-340

Abstract: This paper compares the economic forecasts of members of the Board of Governors and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then investigates the value of each group's forecasts in supplementing the forecasts of the Board of Governors' staff. We find that the presidents tend to forecast higher inflation and real GDP growth, and lower unemployment than the members of the Board of Governors. We also find that the presidents' real GDP and unemployment rate forecasts add value to the real economy forecasts of the staff, while the governors' inflation forecasts add value to the staff's inflation forecasts.

Keywords: Federal Open Market Committee; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:poleco:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:332-340

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.09.004

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