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Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question

Francesco Corsello, Stefano Neri and Alex Tagliabracci ()

European Journal of Political Economy, 2021, vol. 69, issue C

Abstract: Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-term expectations have also become sensitive to short-term expectations and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who participated in most of the survey rounds were highly sensitive to short-term developments in inflation.

Keywords: Survey data; Professional forecasters; Inflation expectations; Anchoring; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102031

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