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Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question

Francesco Corsello (), Stefano Neri () and Alex Tagliabracci ()

No 516, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB Governing Council’s inflation aim. Long-term expectations from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have not returned to the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation, and their distribution remains tilted to the downside. Long-term expectations have become sensitive to short-term ones and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who have participated to most of the survey rounds are the most responsive to short-term developments in inflation.

Keywords: inflation expectations; anchoring; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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