Economics at your fingertips  

Bayesian approach to hazard rate models for early detection of warranty and reliability problems using upstream supply chain information

Chongwen Zhou, Ratna Babu Chinnam, Evrim Dalkiran and Alexander Korostelev

International Journal of Production Economics, 2017, vol. 193, issue C, 316-331

Abstract: Hazard rate models are proposed recently for detection of reliability problems using information from upstream supply chain and warranty databases. Whereas these models improve the accuracy of reliability problem detection, they require relatively long lead-times due to their reliance on just the actual warranty claims data collected from the field. We propose a Bayesian approach to hazard rate models that reduces the need for extensive warranty claim history. The paper introduces Bayesian hazard rate models to account for uncertainties of the explanatory covariates, in particular, information collected during product development, major design change/upgrade efforts, and manufacturing technology upgrades. In doing so, it improves both the accuracy of extant hazard rate models for reliability problem detection as well as the lead-time for detection. The proposed methodology is illustrated and validated using real-world data from a leading global Tier-1 automotive supplier.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Warranty; Hazard rate; Early detection; Upstream information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Production Economics is currently edited by R. W. Grubbström

More articles in International Journal of Production Economics from Elsevier
Series data maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2018-01-24
Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:193:y:2017:i:c:p:316-331