A dynamic optimization model for vaccine allocation with age considerations: A study inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic

Amir Pirayesh, Alireza Asadaraghi, Mehrdad Mohammadi, Ali Siadat and Olga Battaïa

International Journal of Production Economics, 2025, vol. 280, issue C

Abstract: In a pandemic situation, an effective vaccination campaign is seen as a powerful tool to prevent the spread of infectious diseases and reduce fatalities. However, its success highly depends on its organization and combination with other measures. To help the decision-makers in this endeavor, this paper proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming - Vaccine Allocation (MILP-VA) model to plan the vaccination campaign to minimize the number of possible fatalities over a given period. To better integrate the pandemic dynamics, this model is coupled with a single-dose Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered (SVIR) model where the compartmentalization of the population allows for the adjustment of different demographic and epidemiological parameters based on age categories and their social interactions. This approach is proven to suit populations with heterogeneous age groups better. The applicability of the proposed SVIR-MILP-VA model is illustrated using a case study inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, an extensive numerical analysis was conducted to test various managerial, epidemiological, and behavioral conditions, such as vaccine availability, transmission rates, and vaccine hesitancy. This approach facilitates robust discussions to address the uncertainties of an emerging pandemic and provides a solid foundation for informed vaccination decisions in real-world settings. The results are discussed, and the findings are formulated as insights for researchers and practitioners.

Keywords: Vaccine allocation; Age-based compartmentalization; SVIR model; Optimization; Linear programming; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925527324003311
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:proeco:v:280:y:2025:i:c:s0925527324003311

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2024.109474

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Production Economics is currently edited by Stefan Minner

More articles in International Journal of Production Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().