Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment

Dorine Boumans, Klaus Gründler, Niklas Potrafke and Fabian Ruthardt

Journal of Public Economics, 2024, vol. 235, issue C

Abstract: Can political leaders influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of the change in US leadership on growth expectations of international experts. The effect works through both economic (more positive expectations about trade) and psychological (irrational exuberance at the defeat of an unpopular but powerful leader) channels. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.

Keywords: US presidential elections; Politicians; Economic expectations; Economic experts; Survey experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A11 D72 E00 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:235:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724000768

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105140

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