Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment

Dorine Boumans, Klaus Gründler (), Niklas Potrafke and Fabian Ruthardt

No 9974, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden’s election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.

Keywords: US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; survey experiment; causal inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A11 D72 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9974

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