Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart

B.J.M. Ale, L.J. Bellamy, R. van der Boom, J. Cooper, Roger Cooke, L.H.J. Goossens, A.R. Hale, D. Kurowicka, O. Morales, A.L.C. Roelen and J. Spouge

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, vol. 94, issue 9, 1433-1441

Abstract: The development of the Netherlands international airport Schiphol has been the subject of fierce political debate for several decades. One of the considerations has been the safety of the population living around the airport, the density of which has been and still is growing. In the debate about the acceptability of the risks associated with the air traffic above, The Netherlands extensive use has been made of statistical models relating the movement of airplanes to the risks on the ground. Although these models are adequate for the debate and for physical planning around the airport, the need has arisen to gain a more thorough understanding of the accident genesis in air traffic, with the ultimate aim of improving the safety situation in air traffic in general and around Schiphol in particular. To this aim, a research effort has started to develop causal models for air traffic risks in the expectation that these will ultimately give the insight needed. The concept was described in an earlier paper. In this paper, the backbone of the model and the way event sequence diagrams, fault-trees and Bayesian belief nets are linked to form a homogeneous mathematical model suitable as a tool to analyse causal chains and quantify risks is described.

Keywords: Risk; Causal model; Aviation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:9:p:1433-1441

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.024

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