Details about Roger M. Cooke

Access statistics for papers by Roger M. Cooke.

Last updated 2025-04-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pco491

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Working Papers

2021

1. The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2021) View citations (3) (2021)

2019

2. Market-Based Methods for Monetizing Uncertainty Reduction: A Case Study
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future

2017

3. Effects of Increases in IQ in India on the Present Value of Lifetime Earnings: A Structured Expert Judgment Study
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future

2016

4. Full title How Does Breastfeeding Affect IQ? Applying the Classical Model of Structured Expert Judgment
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (1)
5. Real Option Value for New Measurements of Cloud Radiative Forcing
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (1)

2014

6. Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (2)

2011

7. A shapley value approach to pricing climate risks
   Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
8. Heavy-Tailed Distributions: Data, Diagnostics, and New Developments
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (4)
9. Precursor Analysis for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling: From Prescriptive to Risk-Informed Regulation
   RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (2)
10. Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review
    Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review, Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2011) View citations (7) (2011)

2010

11. Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification: Lessons Learned from the Joint EU-USNRC Project on Uncertainty Analysis of Probabilistic Accident Consequence Codes
    RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (2)

2009

12. Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation
    RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (11)
13. The Unholy Trinity: Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations
    RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (18)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data
   Futures & Foresight Science, 2024, 6, (4)

2023

2. Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence
   Futures & Foresight Science, 2023, 5, (1)

2022

3. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
   Nature, 2022, 610, (7933), 687-692 View citations (81)

2021

4. Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 37, (1), 378-387 View citations (8)
5. The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates
   Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2021, 52, (2 (Fall)), 223-305 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates, RFF Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (4) (2021)

2020

6. Market-based methods for monetizing uncertainty reduction
   Environment Systems and Decisions, 2020, 40, (1), 3-13 View citations (3)
7. Vine copula regression for observational studies
   AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2020, 104, (2), 141-167 View citations (3)

2019

8. Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods
   PLOS ONE, 2019, 14, (7), 1-18 View citations (1)

2018

9. Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context
   Journal of Risk Research, 2018, 21, (9), 1146-1161 View citations (3)
10. Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments
    Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2018, 12, (1), 113-132 View citations (17)
11. Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence
    Climatic Change, 2018, 151, (3), 541-554 View citations (2)

2017

12. Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017, 163, (C), 109-120 View citations (19)
13. Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, 258, (3), 801-819 View citations (17)
14. Using the social cost of carbon to value earth observing systems
    Climate Policy, 2017, 17, (3), 330-345 View citations (1)

2016

15. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases
    PLOS ONE, 2016, 11, (3), 1-14 View citations (4)
16. Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
    Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6, (5), 445-451 View citations (26)
17. Global correlation and uncertainty accounting
    Dependence Modeling, 2016, 4, (1), 6

2015

18. Messaging climate change uncertainty
    Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5, (1), 8-10 View citations (15)
19. Sampling, conditionalizing, counting, merging, searching regular vines
    Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 2015, 138, (C), 4-18 View citations (10)
20. The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?
    Risk Analysis, 2015, 35, (1), 12-15 View citations (6)

2014

21. Estimating expected value of information using Bayesian belief networks: a case study in fish consumption advisory
    Environment Systems and Decisions, 2014, 34, (1), 88-97 View citations (3)
22. Reaction to ‘An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results’
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2014, 177, (4), 981-985 View citations (3)
23. Value of information for climate observing systems
    Environment Systems and Decisions, 2014, 34, (1), 98-109 View citations (7)

2013

24. A conformational switch in HP1 releases auto-inhibition to drive heterochromatin assembly
    Nature, 2013, 496, (7445), 377-381 View citations (3)
25. Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current
    Marine Policy, 2013, 42, (C), 68-73 View citations (1)
26. Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice
    Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3, (4), 311-312 View citations (1)
27. Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely
    Climatic Change, 2013, 117, (3), 467-479 View citations (8)

2012

28. Explaining the Failure to Insure Catastrophic Risks
    The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 2012, 37, (2), 206-227 View citations (41)
29. Least squares type estimation for Cox regression model and specification error
    Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2012, 56, (7), 2288-2302
30. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk
    Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2012, 17, (1), 17-24 View citations (4)

2011

31. Modeling and validating stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion
    Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 2011, 27, (2), 115-130 View citations (2)
32. Response to Conundrums Letter
    Risk Analysis, 2011, 31, (1), 5-6
33. Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review
    Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2011, 5, 1-24 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review, Economics Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (6) (2011)

2010

34. Conundrums with Uncertainty Factors
    Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (3), 330-339 View citations (2)
35. Mining and visualising ordinal data with non-parametric continuous BBNs
    Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2010, 54, (3), 668-687 View citations (10)
36. Prioritizing Emerging Zoonoses in The Netherlands
    PLOS ONE, 2010, 5, (11), 1-9 View citations (4)
37. Probabilistic Inversion in Priority Setting of Emerging Zoonoses
    Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (5), 715-723 View citations (2)
38. Response to Reviewers
    Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (3), 353-353
39. Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model
    Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (6), 934-944 View citations (1)

2009

40. Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, 94, (9), 1433-1441 View citations (18)
41. The chromatin remodeller ACF acts as a dimeric motor to space nucleosomes
    Nature, 2009, 462, (7276), 1016-1021 View citations (1)

2008

42. On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, 93, (5), 745-756 View citations (12)
43. Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits
    Risk Analysis, 2008, 28, (3), 577-587
44. TU Delft expert judgment data base
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, 93, (5), 657-674 View citations (66)
45. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs
    Medical Decision Making, 2008, 28, (2), 182-200 View citations (10)

2007

46. Alternative energy technologies in buildings: Stakeholder perceptions
    Renewable Energy, 2007, 32, (14), 2320-2333 View citations (13)
47. Sampling algorithms for generating joint uniform distributions using the vine-copula method
    Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2007, 51, (6), 2889-2906 View citations (6)

2006

48. Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2006, 91, (10), 1364-1372 View citations (4)
49. Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion
    Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2006, 50, (5), 1164-1187 View citations (8)

2005

50. A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing
    Risk Analysis, 2005, 25, (1), 109-124 View citations (8)
51. A practical model of Heineken's bottle filling line with dependent failures
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2005, 164, (2), 491-504 View citations (1)
52. Two-stage Bayesian models—application to ZEDB project
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2005, 90, (2), 123-130 View citations (4)

2004

53. Conformational variations in an infectious protein determine prion strain differences
    Nature, 2004, 428, (6980), 323-328 View citations (3)
54. Ethics and Choosing Appropriate Means to an End: Problems with Coal Mine and Nuclear Workplace Safety
    Risk Analysis, 2004, 24, (1), 147-156

2001

55. The Risk of Groundling Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes
    Risk Analysis, 2001, 21, (6), 1025-1038 View citations (2)

1999

56. A new generic model for applying MAUT
    European Journal of Operational Research, 1999, 118, (3), 589-604 View citations (1)
57. A structural change in the kinesin motor protein that drives motility
    Nature, 1999, 402, (6763), 778-784 View citations (9)

1998

58. A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines
    Risk Analysis, 1998, 18, (4), 511-527 View citations (3)
59. Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals
    Journal of Risk Research, 1998, 1, (2), 117-133 View citations (5)

1995

60. A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration
    European Journal of Operational Research, 1995, 82, (2), 270-282 View citations (17)
61. Coherent combination of experts' opinions
    TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, 1995, 4, (2), 263-313 View citations (26)

1993

62. The total time on test statistic and age-dependent censoring
    Statistics & Probability Letters, 1993, 18, (4), 307-312 View citations (5)

1992

63. Expert opinion in project management
    European Journal of Operational Research, 1992, 57, (1), 24-31 View citations (1)

1990

64. Choice of a long-term strategy for the national electricity supply via scenario analysis and multi-criteria analysis
    European Journal of Operational Research, 1990, 48, (2), 189-203 View citations (14)

1986

65. Monte Carlo Sampling for Generalized Knowledge Dependence with Application to Human Reliability
    Risk Analysis, 1986, 6, (3), 335-343 View citations (4)
66. Problems with Empirical Bayes
    Risk Analysis, 1986, 6, (3), 269-272 View citations (2)

1984

67. Price—Anderson Revisited
    Risk Analysis, 1984, 4, (3), 155-155

Chapters

2021

1. A Number of Things
   Springer
2. Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis
   Springer View citations (2)

2018

3. Elicitation in the Classical Model
   Springer View citations (17)
4. Validation in the Classical Model
   Springer View citations (3)

2012

5. The Value of Information in a Risk Management Approach to Climate Change
   Springer View citations (1)

2010

6. Micro Correlations and Tail Dependence
   Chapter 5 in Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, 2010, pp 89-112
7. Regular Vines: Generation Algorithm and Number of Equivalence Classes
   Chapter 10 in Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, 2010, pp 219-231
8. Vines Arise
   Chapter 3 in Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, 2010, pp 37-71

2009

9. Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions Under Uncertainty
   Palgrave Macmillan