Details about Roger M. Cooke
Access statistics for papers by Roger M. Cooke.
Last updated 2023-07-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pco491
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Working Papers
2021
- The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (3)
2019
- Market-Based Methods for Monetizing Uncertainty Reduction: A Case Study
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future
2017
- Effects of Increases in IQ in India on the Present Value of Lifetime Earnings: A Structured Expert Judgment Study
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future
2016
- Full title How Does Breastfeeding Affect IQ? Applying the Classical Model of Structured Expert Judgment
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (1)
- Real Option Value for New Measurements of Cloud Radiative Forcing
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (1)
2014
- Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (2)
2011
- A shapley value approach to pricing climate risks
Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Heavy-Tailed Distributions: Data, Diagnostics, and New Developments
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (4)
- Precursor Analysis for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling: From Prescriptive to Risk-Informed Regulation
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (2)
- Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review
Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review, Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2011) View citations (7) (2011)
2010
- Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification: Lessons Learned from the Joint EU-USNRC Project on Uncertainty Analysis of Probabilistic Accident Consequence Codes
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (2)
2009
- Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (11)
- The Unholy Trinity: Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations
RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future View citations (18)
Journal Articles
2023
- Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence
Futures & Foresight Science, 2023, 5, (1)
2022
- Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
Nature, 2022, 610, (7933), 687-692 View citations (76)
2021
- Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?
International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 37, (1), 378-387 View citations (8)
2020
- Market-based methods for monetizing uncertainty reduction
Environment Systems and Decisions, 2020, 40, (1), 3-13 View citations (3)
- Vine copula regression for observational studies
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2020, 104, (2), 141-167 View citations (2)
2019
- Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods
PLOS ONE, 2019, 14, (7), 1-18 View citations (1)
2018
- Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context
Journal of Risk Research, 2018, 21, (9), 1146-1161 View citations (3)
- Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2018, 12, (1), 113-132 View citations (17)
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence
Climatic Change, 2018, 151, (3), 541-554 View citations (2)
2017
- Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017, 163, (C), 109-120 View citations (19)
- Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions
European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, 258, (3), 801-819 View citations (16)
- Using the social cost of carbon to value earth observing systems
Climate Policy, 2017, 17, (3), 330-345 View citations (1)
2016
- Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases
PLOS ONE, 2016, 11, (3), 1-14 View citations (4)
- Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6, (5), 445-451 View citations (26)
- Global correlation and uncertainty accounting
Dependence Modeling, 2016, 4, (1), 6
2015
- Messaging climate change uncertainty
Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5, (1), 8-10 View citations (15)
- Sampling, conditionalizing, counting, merging, searching regular vines
Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 2015, 138, (C), 4-18 View citations (10)
- The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?
Risk Analysis, 2015, 35, (1), 12-15 View citations (6)
2014
- Estimating expected value of information using Bayesian belief networks: a case study in fish consumption advisory
Environment Systems and Decisions, 2014, 34, (1), 88-97 View citations (3)
- Reaction to ‘An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results’
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2014, 177, (4), 981-985 View citations (3)
- Value of information for climate observing systems
Environment Systems and Decisions, 2014, 34, (1), 98-109 View citations (7)
2013
- A conformational switch in HP1 releases auto-inhibition to drive heterochromatin assembly
Nature, 2013, 496, (7445), 377-381 View citations (3)
- Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current
Marine Policy, 2013, 42, (C), 68-73 View citations (1)
- Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice
Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3, (4), 311-312 View citations (1)
- Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely
Climatic Change, 2013, 117, (3), 467-479 View citations (8)
2012
- Explaining the Failure to Insure Catastrophic Risks
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 2012, 37, (2), 206-227 View citations (40)
- Least squares type estimation for Cox regression model and specification error
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2012, 56, (7), 2288-2302
- Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2012, 17, (1), 17-24 View citations (4)
2011
- Modeling and validating stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 2011, 27, (2), 115-130 View citations (2)
- Response to Conundrums Letter
Risk Analysis, 2011, 31, (1), 5-6
- Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2011, 5, 1-24 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review, Economics Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (6) (2011)
2010
- Conundrums with Uncertainty Factors
Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (3), 330-339 View citations (2)
- Mining and visualising ordinal data with non-parametric continuous BBNs
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2010, 54, (3), 668-687 View citations (10)
- Prioritizing Emerging Zoonoses in The Netherlands
PLOS ONE, 2010, 5, (11), 1-9 View citations (4)
- Probabilistic Inversion in Priority Setting of Emerging Zoonoses
Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (5), 715-723 View citations (2)
- Response to Reviewers
Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (3), 353-353
- Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model
Risk Analysis, 2010, 30, (6), 934-944 View citations (1)
2009
- Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, 94, (9), 1433-1441 View citations (18)
- The chromatin remodeller ACF acts as a dimeric motor to space nucleosomes
Nature, 2009, 462, (7276), 1016-1021 View citations (1)
2008
- On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, 93, (5), 745-756 View citations (12)
- Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits
Risk Analysis, 2008, 28, (3), 577-587
- TU Delft expert judgment data base
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, 93, (5), 657-674 View citations (66)
- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs
Medical Decision Making, 2008, 28, (2), 182-200 View citations (10)
2007
- Alternative energy technologies in buildings: Stakeholder perceptions
Renewable Energy, 2007, 32, (14), 2320-2333 View citations (13)
- Sampling algorithms for generating joint uniform distributions using the vine-copula method
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2007, 51, (6), 2889-2906 View citations (6)
2006
- Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2006, 91, (10), 1364-1372 View citations (4)
- Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2006, 50, (5), 1164-1187 View citations (8)
2005
- A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing
Risk Analysis, 2005, 25, (1), 109-124 View citations (8)
- A practical model of Heineken's bottle filling line with dependent failures
European Journal of Operational Research, 2005, 164, (2), 491-504 View citations (1)
- Two-stage Bayesian models—application to ZEDB project
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2005, 90, (2), 123-130 View citations (4)
2004
- Conformational variations in an infectious protein determine prion strain differences
Nature, 2004, 428, (6980), 323-328 View citations (3)
- Ethics and Choosing Appropriate Means to an End: Problems with Coal Mine and Nuclear Workplace Safety
Risk Analysis, 2004, 24, (1), 147-156
2001
- The Risk of Groundling Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes
Risk Analysis, 2001, 21, (6), 1025-1038 View citations (2)
1999
- A new generic model for applying MAUT
European Journal of Operational Research, 1999, 118, (3), 589-604 View citations (1)
- A structural change in the kinesin motor protein that drives motility
Nature, 1999, 402, (6763), 778-784 View citations (9)
1998
- A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines
Risk Analysis, 1998, 18, (4), 511-527 View citations (3)
- Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals
Journal of Risk Research, 1998, 1, (2), 117-133 View citations (5)
1995
- A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration
European Journal of Operational Research, 1995, 82, (2), 270-282 View citations (17)
- Coherent combination of experts' opinions
TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, 1995, 4, (2), 263-313 View citations (24)
1993
- The total time on test statistic and age-dependent censoring
Statistics & Probability Letters, 1993, 18, (4), 307-312 View citations (5)
1992
- Expert opinion in project management
European Journal of Operational Research, 1992, 57, (1), 24-31 View citations (1)
1990
- Choice of a long-term strategy for the national electricity supply via scenario analysis and multi-criteria analysis
European Journal of Operational Research, 1990, 48, (2), 189-203 View citations (14)
1986
- Monte Carlo Sampling for Generalized Knowledge Dependence with Application to Human Reliability
Risk Analysis, 1986, 6, (3), 335-343 View citations (4)
- Problems with Empirical Bayes
Risk Analysis, 1986, 6, (3), 269-272 View citations (2)
1984
- Price—Anderson Revisited
Risk Analysis, 1984, 4, (3), 155-155
Chapters
2021
- A Number of Things
Springer
- Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis
Springer View citations (2)
2018
- Elicitation in the Classical Model
Springer View citations (17)
- Validation in the Classical Model
Springer View citations (3)
2012
- The Value of Information in a Risk Management Approach to Climate Change
Springer View citations (1)
2010
- Micro Correlations and Tail Dependence
Chapter 5 in Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, 2010, pp 89-112
- Regular Vines: Generation Algorithm and Number of Equivalence Classes
Chapter 10 in Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, 2010, pp 219-231
- Vines Arise
Chapter 3 in Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, 2010, pp 37-71
2009
- Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions Under Uncertainty
Palgrave Macmillan
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