Validation in the Classical Model

Roger Cooke

Chapter Chapter 3 in Elicitation, 2018, pp 37-59 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Validation is the hallmark of science. For expert judgment to contribute to science-based uncertainty quantification, it must become amenable to empirical validation. Using data in which experts quantify uncertainty on variables from their fields whose true values are known post hoc, this chapter explains how validation is performed in the Classical Model for structured expert judgment and reviews results for different combination methods.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_3

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