Economics at your fingertips  

Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions

Christoph Werner, Tim Bedford, Roger Cooke, Anca M. Hanea and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles

European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, vol. 258, issue 3, 801-819

Abstract: Many applications in decision making under uncertainty and probabilistic risk assessment require the assessment of multiple, dependent uncertain quantities, so that in addition to marginal distributions, interdependence needs to be modelled in order to properly understand the overall risk. Nevertheless, relevant historical data on dependence information are often not available or simply too costly to obtain. In this case, the only sensible option is to elicit this uncertainty through the use of expert judgements. In expert judgement studies, a structured approach to eliciting variables of interest is desirable so that their assessment is methodologically robust. One of the key decisions during the elicitation process is the form in which the uncertainties are elicited. This choice is subject to various, potentially conflicting, desiderata related to e.g. modelling convenience, coherence between elicitation parameters and the model, combining judgements, and the assessment burden for the experts. While extensive and systematic guidance to address these considerations exists for single variable uncertainty elicitation, for higher dimensions very little such guidance is available. Therefore, this paper offers a systematic review of the current literature on eliciting dependence. The literature on the elicitation of dependence parameters such as correlations is presented alongside commonly used dependence models and experience from case studies. From this, guidance about the strategy for dependence assessment is given and gaps in the existing research are identified to determine future directions for structured methods to elicit dependence.

Keywords: Risk analysis; Uncertainty modelling; Dependence elicitation; Structured expert judgement; Dependence modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.10.018

Access Statistics for this article

European Journal of Operational Research is currently edited by Roman Slowinski, Jesus Artalejo, Jean-Charles. Billaut, Robert Dyson and Lorenzo Peccati

More articles in European Journal of Operational Research from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

Page updated 2021-06-30
Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:258:y:2017:i:3:p:801-819