A SARIMA-RVFL hybrid model assisted by wavelet decomposition for very short-term solar PV power generation forecast

Vishal Kushwaha and Naran M. Pindoriya

Renewable Energy, 2019, vol. 140, issue C, 124-139

Abstract: A very short-term solar PV power generation forecast can be extremely helpful for real-time balancing operation in an electricity market which in turn will profit both energy suppliers as well as customers. However, the intermittency of solar PV power introduces inaccuracies in its forecast. To address this challenge, the research paper has studied the effect of wavelet decomposition of solar PV power time series on its forecast. A novel and time adaptive, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA)-Random Vector Functional Link (RVFL) neural network hybrid model assisted by Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) has been proposed. The solar PV power generation data obtained from roof-top solar PV plants installed at IIT Gandhinagar is used to develop and validate the forecast models. Various numerical forecast accuracy measures have been calculated which show an improvement in accuracy and adaptability of proposed forecast model over constituent models.

Keywords: Artificial neural network; Feature selection; Forecasting; Hybrid model; Solar PV power; Wavelet transform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119303258
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:140:y:2019:i:c:p:124-139

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.020

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable Energy is currently edited by Soteris A. Kalogirou and Paul Christodoulides

More articles in Renewable Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().