Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis

Riya Dutta, Kironmala Chanda and Rajib Maity

Renewable Energy, 2022, vol. 188, issue C, 819-829

Abstract: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations (UN) underline the importance of harnessing renewable energy sources for enhancing access to clean energy without compromising the global emission goals. This study explores the impact of climate change on global solar energy potential in the near- (2015–2040) and far-future (2041–2100). Simulated energy variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are used for the assessment. It is found that there is a 6–10% decrease (with respect to 1981–2014 climatology) in Photovoltaic (PV) potential in the Indian subcontinent and China in the boreal autumn that is possibly linked to increased post-monsoon cloud cover. A consistent decrease is noticed in North America and Australia, whereas in Europe, the projected decrease in PV potential, even for the worst emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), is restricted only to the boreal winter season, thereby posing no real threat to future PV power planning. However, a mild decrease in PV potential in Africa during austral summer and a consistent decrease in Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) all over the world contradict earlier studies.

Keywords: Climate change; Renewable energy; Sustainable development goals (SDGs); Photovoltaic (PV) potential; Concentrated solar power (CSP); CMIP6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122001653
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:188:y:2022:i:c:p:819-829

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.02.023

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable Energy is currently edited by Soteris A. Kalogirou and Paul Christodoulides

More articles in Renewable Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().