Simple hourly global solar radiation prediction models

M.S. Audi and M.A. Alsaad

Renewable Energy, 1991, vol. 1, issue 3, 473-478

Abstract: Three simple prediction models of hourly global radiation, namely, a normal distribution model (ND), a half-sine wave model (HW), and a polynomial model (PO), are tested using data for a period of five years of the area of Amman, Jordan. The results show that none of these models alone can adequately represent the tested data. Specifically, the results show that PO model represents the data in about 42% of the hours of the year, the ND model about 32%, and the HW model about 34%. Thus a new model which is a combination of the three simple models developed to provide a comprehensive representation of the tested data. This model is given as follows: rg = Φp(i, h) [a0+a1h+a2h2+a3h3+a4h4]+Φs(i,h) b0 +b1sinπh15 + π2 + Φn(i, h) 1σ2πexp−h22σ2 where h is the hour of the day, i the month of the year, and Φp, Φs, and Φn have 0, 0.5 or 1 values depending on i and h. It is found that this model represents the data in about 74% of the time.

Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:1:y:1991:i:3:p:473-478

DOI: 10.1016/0960-1481(91)90060-3

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