Strategic bidding for a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system considering the profit beyond forecast time

Xiao Li, Pan Liu, Lei Cheng, Qian Cheng, Wei Zhang, Shitian Xu and Yalian Zheng

Renewable Energy, 2023, vol. 204, issue C, 277-289

Abstract: Hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid systems gain profit by bidding in the forecast lead-time. However, the literature focuses on bidding strategy to maximize current profits, while the future utilities (beyond forecast time) for hybrid systems are generally neglected. To address the research gap, the study proposed an integrated bidding strategy for a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system with a trade-off between current profits and future utilities considered. Steps are as follows: (1) ensemble forecasts are used within the forecast lead-time, within historical data input as stochastic scenarios beyond forecast time, (2) functional forms between the profit beyond forecast time and the reservoir carryover storage, expected price, inflow, wind and photovoltaic power are fitted, and (3) a two-layer nested bidding model is to maximize the total-profit. With China's Sichuan province as the market, the Jinping-I hybrid system was selected as the case study. Results show that: (1) profits beyond forecast time can be quantified as a linear function with R-squared for 10-day above 0.6, and (2) the optimal bidding strategy raises the profit by 0.45% while reduces water-consumption by 10.3% compared with conventional strategy. The framework is effective in gaining more profit with lower risk for hybrid systems.

Keywords: Hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system; Strategic bidding; Beyond forecast horizon; Carryover storage; Two-layer nested approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:204:y:2023:i:c:p:277-289

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.12.098

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