Using DNPV to determine the economic viability of residential photovoltaic systems in Germany: Is the investment still worth it?

Carlo Kraemer

Renewable Energy, 2024, vol. 237, issue PA

Abstract: The conditions for photovoltaic investments have changed significantly in recent times. Declining subsidies and rising investment costs make these investments less attractive. In addition, electricity price uncertainty has risen sharply, making the economic benefit of using self-produced electricity from residential photovoltaic systems risky. This paper provides a novel framework to determine the financial attractiveness of such investments using the Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) method, which allows for a systematic and consistent consideration of the individual risks inherent in these investments. Furthermore, an extensive survey of the relevant current market parameters is performed to validate the common opinion that residential photovoltaic investments are generally advantageous. It turns out that in the current market environment in Germany, residential photovoltaic systems are not economically viable under most conditions. The system evaluated in this case study with a common size of 10 kWp leads to a negative DNPV of -1,664 €. This results in a compelling need for action for political decision-makers in order not to jeopardize the ambitious goals for the expansion of power generation from renewable energy sources.

Keywords: Decoupled net present value; Valuation; Photovoltaic investments; Renewable energies; Risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:237:y:2024:i:pa:s0960148124015945

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121526

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