Wind speed vertical extrapolation model validation under uncertainty

Julian Quick, Juan Pablo Murcia Leon, Carsten Weber Kock, Valentino Servizi, Nikolaj Stokholm Overgaard, Nikolay Dimitrov, Mark Kelly, Pierre-Elouan Réthoré and Taeseong Kim

Renewable Energy, 2025, vol. 240, issue C

Abstract: As the wind energy sector evolves, accurate predictions of complex, nonlinear phenomena are becoming increasingly crucial. While rigorous model validation frameworks are common in high-stakes disciplines like defense and safety, their adoption in wind energy has been limited. This manuscript addresses this gap by introducing a comprehensive validation framework tailored for wind energy systems. This framework integrates both aleatoric (natural variability) and epistemic (knowledge-based) uncertainties. This dual consideration allows for a more nuanced understanding of model performance, especially under varying experimental conditions. The validation framework is applied to a meteorological measurement dataset using a logarithmic vertical extrapolation model. We present a set of numerical tests that validation metrics should satisfy and compare several metrics, providing insights into the relative strengths and applicability.

Keywords: Validation; Wind energy; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:240:y:2025:i:c:s0960148124020962

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122028

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