Development of a hybrid model for medium-term wind farm power output forecasting

Evgenii Ignatev, Galina Deriugina, Konstantin Suslov and Georgiana Balaban

Renewable Energy, 2025, vol. 249, issue C

Abstract: Nowadays there are two main approaches to operational physical forecasting of wind farm power generation. The first relies on numerical weather predictions and technical characteristics of wind farms, while the second employs statistical techniques implemented using neural networks that analyze empirical data and establish correlations between weather conditions and wind farm output. However, each approach has limitations in accuracy when used separately. This paper presents a hybrid model of wind farm short-term power forecasting that combines the advantages of physical and statistical approaches. The developed model utilizes publicly available meteorological forecasts, adjusted specifically for the wind farm site. The model calculates wind speeds at each turbine, considering aerodynamic interactions among turbines. Actual operating data from wind turbines are used to estimate their power output. Thus, the developed hybrid model integrates operational data and numerical methods to improve the accuracy of power output forecasts under specific climatic and geographical conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed model was verified using the case study of the Adygeya wind farm in Russia. Results demonstrated high accuracy, confirming the model's capability to reliably account for turbine aerodynamic interactions, climatic and other factors. The proposed approach ensures more reliable wind farm operation planning, which is crucial for integrating renewable energy sources into power systems.

Keywords: Wind energy; Wind farm; Wind turbine; Aerodynamic shading; Forecasting; Hybrid model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148125008626
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:249:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125008626

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123200

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable Energy is currently edited by Soteris A. Kalogirou and Paul Christodoulides

More articles in Renewable Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().