Transition and trajectory of spatiotemporal characterization of waste photovoltaics in China: 2013–2060

Xin An, Jiaxi Cao, Junhe Ba and Mo Zhang

Renewable Energy, 2025, vol. 249, issue C

Abstract: With the rapid expansion of renewable energy worldwide, photovoltaics play a crucial role in the energy transition. As a leading country in the photovoltaic industry, China has experienced substantial growth in installed capacity over the past decade. Looking ahead, the recycling and management of decommissioned photovoltaic modules will be increasingly important. Provincial differences in land resources, solar radiation, and policies create significant spatial heterogeneity in photovoltaic installations. These installations fall into two categories: centralized and distributed photovoltaic systems. Due to installation constraints, distributed photovoltaics face greater challenges in dismantling and transportation, complicating recycling efforts. Therefore, scientifically robust waste prediction models tailored to different installation types are essential. This study forecasts future photovoltaic waste generation and analyzes its spatiotemporal distribution at provincial levels. The results indicate that large-scale photovoltaic waste will emerge after 2035. Although centralized photovoltaic waste remains a major component of waste in the early stages, the share of distributed photovoltaic waste is projected to increase from 25 % in 2030 to 56 % by 2060. Centralized photovoltaic waste dominates in the North and Northwest, while distributed waste is prevalent in East China. These findings support government efforts to develop regional photovoltaic development and recycling strategies.

Keywords: Photovoltaic modules; Spatiotemporal distribution; Photovoltaic waste management; Waste forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:249:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125008766

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123214

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