The temporal and spatial distribution of persistent low wind power events and their relationship with weather regimes in mainland China

Yang Gao, Lili Shao, Yangyang Meng, Shuting Mao, Yu Du, Shaoxiu Ma, Jianhua Xiao, Dongyang Yang, Changhong Miao and Guanpeng Dong

Renewable Energy, 2025, vol. 252, issue C

Abstract: Persistent low wind power output (PLWO) events pose the most serious risk to power supply reliability, yet current research rarely focuses on them or their meteorological causes. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PLWO events across mainland China, based on high-resolution wind power capacity factor simulations from 1980 to 2023, and further investigates their meteorological drivers using a weather regime (WR) classification framework. Findings show that short-duration PLWO events (<24 h) typically occur from March to August in wind-rich Northwestern and Northern China, while long-duration events (>24 h) are more frequent in winter. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Northeast China experience more long-duration events in summer, while southern regions face low-output events year-round. Large-scale stable weather patterns, particularly subtropical and mid-to-high latitude high-pressure systems, are major meteorological drivers of long-duration PLWO events by substantially reducing wind speeds. Compared to the seasonal average, the frequency of PLWO events varies by approximately −15 % to +5 %. This study provides valuable scientific insights for improving early warning, forecasting, and mitigation strategies against PLWO events, and lays a foundation for enhancing the adaptability and resilience of the energy system to wind power variability.

Keywords: Wind energy instability; Persistent low wind power output (PLWO) events; Weather regimes; Mainland China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:252:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125011851

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123523

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