Capacity factor prediction and planning in the wind power generation industry

Cigdem Z. Gurgur and Michael Jones

Renewable Energy, 2010, vol. 35, issue 12, 2761-2766

Abstract: The common practice to calculate wind generation capacity values relies more on heuristic approximations than true system estimations. In this paper we proposed a more accurate method. In the first part of our analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation was created based on Markov chains to provide an independent estimate of the true behavior of wind farm capacity value as a function of system penetration. With this curve as a baseline, a technique for using beta distributions to model the input variables was adopted. A final step to increase accuracy involved the use of numerical convolution within the program to eliminate summation estimates.

Keywords: Wind power; Capacity value; Monte Carlo simulation; Markov chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:35:y:2010:i:12:p:2761-2766

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.04.027

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