 Wind resource estimates with an analog ensemble approachEmilie Vanvyve, Luca Delle Monache, Andrew J. Monaghan and James O. Pinto Renewable Energy, 2015, vol. 74, issue C, 761-773 Abstract: The wind resource and energy assessment is key to a wind farm development project. It allows for establishing the feasibility and economic viability of the project over the typical 10- to 30-year lifetime of a wind farm. Recent studies show that the accuracy of assessments has substantial room for improvement. Estimating and reducing uncertainty is important to secure financing and ensure the confidence of investors. A new method is proposed and demonstrated for the long-term estimation of the wind speeds at a target site, a key step in assessments. The method is based on ensembles made of analogs between a short-term observational record from the target site and a long-term historical record from a nearby site or an atmospheric model. It provides a high-quality long-term wind resource estimate, characterized by an accurate wind speed time series and frequency distribution. It also provides a reliable estimate of the uncertainty based on the actual physical processes determining the current atmospheric flow rather than the climatological wind distribution. Keywords: Wind energy; Long-term wind resource assessment; Analog ensemble; Uncertainty quantification (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:74:y:2015:i:c:p:761-773 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.060 Access Statistics for this article Renewable Energy is currently edited by Soteris A. Kalogirou and Paul Christodoulides More articles in Renewable Energy from Elsevier |
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