STEM employment resiliency during recessions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

James C. Davis, Holden A. Diethorn, Gerald R. Marschke and Andrew J. Wang

Research Policy, 2026, vol. 55, issue 1

Abstract: STEM occupational employment suffered smaller peak-to-trough percentage declines than non-STEM employment during both the Great Recession and COVID-19 recession, suggesting a relative resiliency of STEM employment during recessions in the digital age. We exploit the sudden peak-to-trough declines in STEM and non-STEM employment during the COVID-19 recession to measure STEM recession-resiliency during the pandemic, decomposing our difference-in-differences estimate into parts explained by various sources including differences in demographics, educational attainment, job tasks, remote work capability, industry, and STEM knowledge importance on the job. We find that STEM knowledge importance on the job explains the greatest share of STEM employment resiliency, and that workers in non-STEM occupations who nonetheless use STEM knowledge experienced higher employment rates during the pandemic. We show that R&D expenditures and employment also remained resilient, suggesting only a mild effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on innovative activity. Altogether, our findings suggest that increasing opportunities for STEM training — including outside the college-track — may help improve the employment resiliency of workers during future recessions.

Keywords: STEM employment; STEM knowledge; Innovation; Recessions; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I1 I26 J21 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:respol:v:55:y:2026:i:1:s0048733325001908

DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2025.105361

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