A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates
Shawkat Hammoudeh and
Nwin-Anefo Fru Asaba
International Review of Economics & Finance, 2015, vol. 40, issue C, 72-89
We use the Bayesian Markov-switching vector error correction (MS-VEC) model and the regime-dependent impulse response functions (RDIRFs) to examine the transmission dynamics between oil spot prices, precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) spot prices and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. Using daily data from 1987 to 2012, two regimes (low and high volatility regimes) appear to be prevalent for this system. We find evidence that among the five commodity prices the gold prices are the most informative in the group in the high volatility regime, while gold, palladium, and platinum are the most informative in the low volatility regime. Though the platinum and palladium prices impact each other, the impacts in the high volatility regime are asymmetric. In addition to its low correlation in the group, palladium's negative impact on the exchange rate and gold makes it a reliable hedge asset for investors. Gold is the least volatile variable, thus affirming its use as a “safe haven” asset, while silver and oil are the most volatile in the group. Understanding the dynamics of these commodity prices should help investors decide how to invest during periods of low vs. highly volatile regimes.
Keywords: Markov-switching VEC model; Oil prices; Precious metal prices; Regime-dependent impulse response function; Information transmission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q30 Q40 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (46) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:40:y:2015:i:c:p:72-89
Access Statistics for this article
International Review of Economics & Finance is currently edited by H. Beladi and C. Chen
More articles in International Review of Economics & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().