Economics at your fingertips  

Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test

Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta, Ricardo Sousa and Mark Wohar ()

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2017, vol. 48, issue C, 269-279

Abstract: We use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to compare the predictive ability of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) and the Markov Switching version (cayMS) for excess and real stock and housing returns and their volatility. Our results reveal strong evidence of nonlinearity and regime changes in the relationship between asset returns and cay or cayMS, which corroborates the relevance of this econometric framework. Moreover, both cay or cayMS are found to predict only excess stock returns over its entire conditional distribution, with the latter being a strong predictor only at certain quantiles. As for the housing market, these two consumption-wealth ratios only predict the volatility of real housing returns, with cayMS outperforming cay over the majority of the conditional distribution.

Keywords: C22; C32; C53; Q41; Stock returns; Housing returns; Causality-in-quantiles test; Nonparametric (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2016.12.007

Access Statistics for this article

International Review of Economics & Finance is currently edited by H. Beladi and C. Chen

More articles in International Review of Economics & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

Page updated 2023-09-09
Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:269-279