Economics at your fingertips  

Estimating downside risk in stock returns under structural breaks

Matthew Hood and Farooq Malik

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2018, vol. 58, issue C, 102-112

Abstract: We show with simulations that inducing structural breaks in the volatility of returns causes non-normality by significantly increasing kurtosis. We endogenously detect significant structural breaks in the volatility of US stock returns and incorporate this information to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) to measure the downside risk. Out-of-sample performance results indicate that our proposed model, which incorporates both time varying volatility and structural breaks in volatility, produces more accurate VaR forecasts than several benchmark methods. We highlight the economic importance of our results by calculating the daily capital charges using the Basel Accords.

Keywords: Volatility; Structural breaks; GARCH (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

International Review of Economics & Finance is currently edited by H. Beladi and C. Chen

More articles in International Review of Economics & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-01-19
Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:102-112