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Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?

Laura Ballester and Ana González-Urteaga

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2021, vol. 72, issue C, 643-663

Abstract: We analyse the cross-border transmission effect of credit ratings on sovereign CDSs covering a broad sample of emerging countries during the period 2004 to 2015. This study differentiates between the spillover and competition effects between and within geographical areas of emerging countries. We find substantial evidence of cross-border effects with asymmetric responses to upgrades and downgrades. The market reaction differs across regions, reflecting how the international and local impact of rating events are due to different types of effects. At the international portfolio level, the competitive effect is dominant over the spillover effect. Negative events in Asia benefit Africa (which is also negatively affected by upgrades in Asia) and Middle East, the latter transmitting in turn to Asia with the same competitive effect. However, some spillover effects are also found both at the portfolio and intra-portfolio levels. The ones associated with downgrades are especially sensitive. In these cases, we identify the particular emerging economies that contribute to an increase in financial instability and to regional spillover effects.

Keywords: Sovereign credit risk; Credit ratings; CDS spreads; Emerging markets; Spillover effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G15 G24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.014

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