Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices

Zuzana Rakovská
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Zuzana Gric

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2021, vol. 73, issue C, 473-495

Abstract: In this paper, I construct a novel composite sentiment indicator which captures the irrational beliefs of a general population in Germany. This indicator is used to demonstrate that sentiment of a general public is responsible for temporary overreaction of the aggregate German stock market, but also its narrower segments embodied in four important equity indices from the DAX family. My results show that population-wide beliefs work as a contrarian predictor of future returns of German equity indices for horizons of six to twelve months. In addition, the out-of-sample framework is developed to underline the degree of improvement achieved by combining several survey-based measures into one composite sentiment indicator. The results reveal that the composite indicator exhibits a more accurate forecasting performance than the popular sentiment measure, consumer confidence.

Keywords: Composite indicatort; Consumer confidence; DAX indices; Return predictability; Sentiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G17 G40 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Working Paper: Composite Survey Sentiment as a Predictor of Future Market Returns: Evidence for German Equity Indices (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:73:y:2021:i:c:p:473-495

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.022

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