Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach
Gizem Uzuner () and
Mark Wohar ()
International Review of Economics & Finance, 2021, vol. 76, issue C, 114-126
This study is aimed at examining the dynamic relationship between real housing prices (RHP) return and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach and annual data for a panel of panel of 16 countries over the period 2004–2018. The study includes economic growth, short-term interest rate, and population as additional covariates. Empirical results show that a positive shock to EPU leads to a decrease in housing prices with EPU showing only a weak response to housing price shocks. This implies that EPU has a robust predictive power for the housing market, implying the need for evaluating the associated risks. The panel Granger causality tests indicate strong and robust Granger causality from the EPU to housing prices, but not vice versa. The causal links also indicate that the effect of the EPU on RHP is direct rather than indirect through other variables. Based on these outcomes, policy recommendations are made for real estate agents, portfolio managers, and policy makers.
Keywords: Housing price; Economic policy uncertainty; Panel vector autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:76:y:2021:i:c:p:114-126
Access Statistics for this article
International Review of Economics & Finance is currently edited by H. Beladi and C. Chen
More articles in International Review of Economics & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().