Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model

Hong Qiu, Qian Wang, Qun Wu and Hongyong Zhou

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2022, vol. 80, issue C, 159-165

Abstract: We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach the peak but also greatly reduce the cumulative number of infections and deaths. We verify the model predictions by using the simulation and the data of the COVID-19 cases. The results are independent of the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases.

Keywords: COVID-19; SIR model; Isolation measures; Infections; Deaths (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H10 I10 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:159-165

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.063

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