Global banking systems, financial stability, and uncertainty: How have countries coped with geopolitical risks?

Hai Hong Trinh and Thao Phuong Tran

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2024, vol. 96, issue PB

Abstract: The study provides global evidence on the effects of news-based geopolitical risk (GPR), events, and associated risks on the financial stability of banking systems. With extensive large panel data from 179 economies over the past decades, we document strong adverse effects of GPR on financial stability with the predicted decrease (increase) in the bank (non-performing loans) Z-score. Commercial banking systems are heterogeneously exposed to GPR. Possible mechanisms to mitigate the effects of GPR include multidimensional financial development, enhanced world governance, and public finance. Our findings are robust with a battery of econometric approaches controlling for time-varying macroeconomic factors and banking characteristics (e.g., capitalization, concentration, performance) across countries and regions. The impacts of GPR on global financial stability are persistent when we control for systematic banking crises, economic policy, world uncertainty, and global uncertainty spillovers. While higher capitalized banks could secure ample financial stability with substantial military expenditure, the Asia Pacific and emerging economies are sensitive to widespread GPR. The study highlights the roles of institutional quality and world governance factors through times of uncertainty. In The context of global risks, greater global and comprehensive collaborations with mitigated GPR threats are inevitable for our inclusive growth toward Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings are critical to policymakers, advisers, and economists for our global financial stability and sustainable development.

Keywords: Geopolitical risks; Financial stability; Banking systems; Global risks; World uncertainty; World governance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 E02 E5 F4 G00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024006397
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1059056024006397

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103647

Access Statistics for this article

International Review of Economics & Finance is currently edited by H. Beladi and C. Chen

More articles in International Review of Economics & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().